Angela Borozna
Several recent studies view the Arctic as a focal point of a new Cold War, characterized by intense competition and confrontation. These studies tend to project Russia’s assertiveness elsewhere to Moscow’s future stance in the North. However, a competing narrative among some scholars suggests that, despite an increasingly assertive Russia, Moscow continued to cooperate and observe international agreements related to the Arctic. To assess these competing claims, this paper addresses the following question: How does geopolitical tension shape Russia’s strategic approach to the Arctic? How has the war in Ukraine and the imposition of international sanctions influenced Russia’s Arctic policy? Can Russia’s assertive posture in the Ukraine conflict coexist with its pursuit of peaceful cooperation in the Arctic region? To answer these questions, this article highlights the intersection of Russia’s state military security perspectives and its economic security. The paper examines the evolution of Russia’s Arctic strategy over time, tracing the country’s shifting perceptions of security threats and increasing assertiveness in the Arctic. By examining Russia’s posture in the region over time, its investment in regional projects, and its cooperation with China, the paper demonstrates that, in response to intensified competition, Russia has adopted a two-pronged Arctic strategy that combines economic and military security. The country is focused on modernizing and strengthening its Arctic-based armed forces, aiming to bolster its security posture and readiness to address potential regional threats. Meanwhile, Moscow uses its military security to protect its economic interests. A critical review of Russia’s strategy in the Arctic is essential, as much of the existing scholarship is shaped by Western interpretations of Russia’s actions. By neglecting Russia’s perspective, analyses of the Arctic risk misrepresenting its behavior and generate policy responses that are ineffective, short-sighted, and at times even dangerous. Russia’s policy in the Arctic cannot be viewed in isolation from the actions of the Western powers in the region. Furthermore, by overlooking Russia’s willingness to cooperate on specific issues while exaggerating security threats, some research on Russia’s Arctic policy reinforces the dynamics of the security dilemma and heightens the likelihood of escalation. This paper seeks to address this imbalance in research on the Arctic by analyzing Russia’s strategy over time and by trying to establish the true causes of Russia’s actions in the region.
