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Arctic Yearbook 2013
The Drivers of Chinese Arctic Interests
balance between the forces and interests of key actors of international energy
activities, and this is the outcome of the long-term competition between energy
exporters and importers and different kinds of international energy organizations…
(Xu, 2007: 5).
Forecasts and modeling of China‘s future energy demand foresees greatly expanded energy
consumption in general and a shift from domestic coal resources to imported oil and natural gas,
although the energy intensity of the Chinese economy will improve markedly (Shan et al., 2012; Liu,
Chen, Liu, 2011; Rout et al., 2011). This growing Chinese dependency on imported oil and gas will
have significant effects on Chinese energy security and strategy, including energy investments and
naval strategy (Xu, 2006; Erickson & Collins, 2007; Leung, 2011; Zhang, 2011, 2012; Cao & Bluth,
2013; Rainwater, 2013). The international energy regime will be affected, since it ―is influenced not
only by economic, political, and social factors of resource-rich countries but also by international
political factors, particularly change in the international balance of power, adjustment of
relationships among countries and changes to international rules‖ (Xu, 2007: 6).
China‟s Concern in Energy Security and Maritime Transportation Routes
To understand China‘s growing interest in outside regions, particularly those that are potentially rich
in energy sources like the Arctic region, it is imperative to understand the importance China attaches
to energy security. How will the increasing demand for energy, raw materials, and other natural
resources shape Chinese policies towards its international relations especially with resource-rich
countries? Can China afford depending on global energy markets, either via exclusive bilateral deals,
or direct investment in resource exploration in order to sustain its economic growth? What strategies
will China use to secure its share of the global resource market? To find the answers to these
questions it is necessary to take an energy security approach to explore the geopolitical, economic,
energy, and environmental implications of China‘s growing energy challenges and to understand the
Chinese concern with energy security in attempting to search for new energy sources and supply
routes.
Energy Security Concerns
China faces particular challenges concerning energy security. China is one of the most important
global buyers of energy and raw materials, and China will be increasingly dependent on foreign
energy and raw materials for its continued economic growth. China is not alone in being a major
global buyer of energy. For instance Japan or South Korea come to mind, if only thinking about
major Asian economies. All these three major Northeast Asian economies see by far the majority of
their energy imports pass through the Strait of Malacca, which is a choke point (which we return to
below). However, a crucial difference between China, Japan and South Korea is that the global sea-
lanes are dominated by the US Navy, and while Japan and South Korea are close allies of the USA,
China is not. China lives under a condition of being completely dependent on sea transport of its
energy and raw material supplies and for exporting its manufacture on sea lanes dominated by –
what can probably be called its strategic competitor – the USA (Leung, 2011; Zhang, 2011; Blunden,
2012; Cao & Bluth, 2013; Rainwater, 2013).