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Li & Bertelsen
global energy supply by 2050. Liu, Chen & Liu (2011) expect that China‘s primary energy
consumption will be 2.5 times its 2007 figure in 2050 with a greatly expanded role for oil but also
natural gas, where China is already an importer. Rout et al (2011) estimate that China will need 4
Gtoe (gigatons of oil equivalent) of primary energy in 2100 of which 1.3 Gtoe will be imported.
Metal prices have increased sharply due to strong demand, particularly from China, which has
contributed 50 percent to the increase in world consumption of the main metals (aluminum, copper,
and steel) in recent years. Due to its rapid growth and rising share in the world economy, China is
expected to retain its critical role in driving commodity market prices (
World Economic Outlook
,
September 2006). China is willing to offer above world market prices for purchasing raw materials,
which attributes great comparative advantages to the developing world.
China became a net importer of petroleum in 1993 and since 2003 it has been the second largest oil
importer and consumer after the U.S. It is also the world‘s largest carbon emitter. China‘s energy
profile used to be heavily weighted towards fossil fuel technologies (especially coal in light of
China‘s abundant resources, but increasingly oil) at a time when reductions are urgently needed to
stabilize global climate change. According to
The Brookings Institution
,
―
[f]rom 2000 to 2005, China‘s
energy consumption rose by 60 percent, accounting for almost half of the growth in world energy
consumption‖ (Downs, 2006: 1). Based on the 2008 statistics from the International Energy Agency,
the growth rate of China‘s energy consumption and its share of the global total final consumption
are comparably much higher than the rest of the world.
Figure 1. Shares of total final consumption 1973 and 2006
Source: International Energy Agency (2008),
Key World Energy Statistics
, 30.
What is particularly noteworthy are the opportunities and challenges to the international energy
regime brought about by the rise of China as an emerging key actor in global energy politics.
According to Xu, the international energy regime is:
the institutional arrangement governing the relationship among the international
energy powers, including a set of rules and mechanisms of several international
organs for energy activities. The current international energy regime displays a