61
Arctic Yearbook 2013
The Drivers of Chinese Arctic Interests
The geopolitical and geo-economic importance of the Arctic region is emerging rapidly, and the
level of the region‘s strategic importance is mainly due to the existence of rich untapped stocks of
natural resources such as fish, minerals and oil and natural gas. These resources are of interest not
only to the Arctic states themselves, but also to emerging Asian states, in particular China, which
require energy, raw materials and food sources to power economic growth and feed wealthier
populations (Jakobson, 2010; Jakobson & Peng, 2012; Jakobson & Lee, 2013; Pan & Zheng, 2013;
Rainwater, 2013). As mentioned above, the USGS estimates that the coastal and continental shelves
of the Arctic Ocean will hold large deposits of oil, natural gas, and methane hydrate (natural gas)
clusters along with large quantities of valuable minerals. By applying a geology-based probabilistic
methodology, the USGS specifically estimated that:
[T]he occurrence of undiscovered oil and gas in 33 geologic provinces thought to be
prospective for petroleum. The sum of the mean estimates for each province
indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44
billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which
approximately 84 percent is expected to occur in offshore areas (U.S.
Geological Survey
Fact Sheet
2008-3049).
Global warming and ice melting has given birth to a new ‗scramble‘ for seabeds and resources
among the five coastal Arctic states, but also outside powers as the emerging Asian ones are trying
to influence the discourse on Arctic Ocean sovereignty (Jakobson, 2010; Jakobson & Peng, 2012;
Jakobson & Lee, 2013; Hong, 2012a, 2012b; Wright, 2011a, 2011b, 2012). In August 2007 Russian
scientists sent a submarine to the Arctic Ocean seabed at 90° North to gather data in support of
Russia‘s claim that the North Pole is part of the Russian continental shelf. During the expedition a
Russian flag was planted on the seabed 4,200m (14,000ft) below the North Pole, which provoked an
angry reaction from other Arctic states and prompted global speculation that Russia‘s aggressive
action might trigger a ―new Cold War‖ over the resources in the region. It could be imaged that
―had the flag event taken place during the days of the Cold War, it would have been an act of mostly
political and military interest‖ (
Iglebaek, 2007:3)
. But it was this flag planting in particular that
sparked Chinese strategic interest in the Arctic Ocean (Jakobson & Lee, 2013).
The Arctic Region as Alternative Maritime Transportation Routes
China is facing the dilemma that energy from Africa and the Persian Gulf is passing through waters
dominated by strategic competitors, the USA and India, threatened by piracy, or chokepointed at the
Strait of Malacca. Equally, exports to the European market pass the same waterways. Diversification
of sea lines of communication for energy and trade is therefore of interest to China. Energy supplies
from the Norwegian and Russian Arctic via the Northern Sea Route offer both a diversification of
energy source and supply route, although it will still pass the Bering Strait and Northern Pacific
where continued US naval domination must be expected. Environmental transformations following
climate changes are affecting the Arctic region and are opening up new economic opportunities,
which could generate economic revenue across the region. For example, global warming, not
denying its disastrous effects on other parts of the world, may create many new possibilities in the
North and may turn the Arctic Ocean into a new economic frontier. New shipping transportation